Author Topic: Statistical reality  (Read 10906 times)

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Offline ChipDoc

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Re: Statistical reality
« Reply #50 on: April 04, 2014, 11:11:48 pm »
Sooooo...  How about that original topic...  Helmets....  statistics....

Here's a statistic:  most folks who are involved in motorcycle accidents either get up and walk away with relatively minor injuries or they simply die.  Either way, these people are not a tremendous burden on society.  Those who do become cripples/vegetables/etc are a tiny proportion of the overall number.  That's why my motorcycle insurance is so much lower than my auto insurance.

I'm getting rid of the cage as soon as they ask for more insurance money.

Offline WillyP

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Re: Statistical reality
« Reply #51 on: April 04, 2014, 11:45:42 pm »


Sooooo...  How about that original topic...  Helmets....  statistics....


Agreed. Or do we need to ad helmets to the list of banned topics?  :rotflmao:
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Offline BertL

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Re: Statistical reality
« Reply #52 on: April 05, 2014, 12:16:30 am »

If society came to the determination that motorcycles were too dangerous, then I'd have no problem giving mine up. It's a piece of metal and plastic. I appreciate the benefits that living in a modern society give me. I'm willing to put up with a few rules in return.

I find that attitude quite disturbing. Serfdom and servitude doesn't bother you?

Matt don't drink the "Jim Jones Kool-Aid" the Social Behavioral Science Profs and their acolytes are serving up at the University and elsewhere.  The benefits of living in our modern society where earned by the preceding generations.  They did not come cheaply.  Should you doubt me, go to Normandy and see for yourself. 9,387 monuments of white against a rich green backdrop.  It is but one of many places around the world that speaks to the cost of living in our modern society and all that it provides.  Please to don't cast it to the winds.

Bert
« Last Edit: April 05, 2014, 01:39:26 am by WillyP, Reason: fixed quote tag »

Offline Mcfly

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Re: Statistical reality
« Reply #53 on: April 05, 2014, 12:56:01 am »
Sooooo...  How about that original topic...  Helmets....  statistics....

Here's a statistic:  most folks who are involved in motorcycle accidents either get up and walk away with relatively minor injuries or they simply die.  Either way, these people are not a tremendous burden on society.  Those who do become cripples/vegetables/etc are a tiny proportion of the overall number.  That's why my motorcycle insurance is so much lower than my auto insurance.

I'm getting rid of the cage as soon as they ask for more insurance money.

Not to go  too far off topic, but....

A certain Lizard sponsored insurance company quoted me $240/yr MORE to insure a $22k Fiat Abarth
over a $37k Infiniti G37...  Organized crime used to wear suits and brimmed hats.... now they wear
little badges that say, "Insurance Agent".


Back on topic...

I still think Bert has dropped the definitive argument regarding the statistical results.  I was once told
that "Statistics" is the science of manipulating numbers.  I take little statistical results as hard evidence.
It's just like hearing the dreaded "researchers have found' preamble....  Researchers rarely research ALL
aspects of the subject of their research, making their findings biased to their research methods, rather than the
'full spectrum' of possibilities that could be present.

The helmet is (in my opinion) a definite advantage in protecting the head, and all it does.  If it weren't, there
wouldn't be Football helmets, Batting Helmets, Lacrosse helmets, Racing Helmets, Bicycling helmets... (the list goes on)
It's also safer to stay IN the airplane, yet people jump out of 'em as a hobby.  Fact is, people take risks in hobbies
every day.  It's that person's responsibility to take precaution, or throw it to the wind. 

I never wore a bicycle helmet growing up...in hind sight, it explains alot!    :loco:
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Offline ChipDoc

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Re: Statistical reality
« Reply #54 on: April 05, 2014, 07:06:40 am »
A certain Lizard sponsored insurance company quoted me $240/yr MORE to insure a $22k Fiat Abarth
over a $37k Infiniti G37...  Organized crime used to wear suits and brimmed hats.... now they wear
little badges that say, "Insurance Agent".

Yes, as through this world I've wandered
I've seen lots of funny men;
Some will rob you with a six-gun,
And some with a fountain pen.

And as through your life you travel,
Yes, as through your life you roam,
You won't never see an outlaw
Drive a family from their home.

-Woody Guthrie, March 1939


Fact is, people take risks in hobbies every day.  It's that person's responsibility to take precaution, or throw it to the wind. 

I took a significant risk just riding to work this evening, no matter what vehicle I used.  I wonder if the gubmint would pay me to stay safely at home?

Offline Open air

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Re: Statistical reality
« Reply #55 on: April 07, 2014, 01:57:12 pm »
Personal freedoms are great when exercised in private.

The roads are public spaces. Your freedom does not trumph those around you.
My children don't need to see excessive risk taking, because you can do what you want.
I don't need the added memories of scooping you into a bag after you have made contact with an object in my role as a firefighter.

Think of others before yourself.
You don't loss personal power by chossing to be part of a society.

Offline gPink

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Re: Statistical reality
« Reply #56 on: April 07, 2014, 03:01:28 pm »
Personal freedoms are great when exercised in private.

The roads are public spaces. Your freedom does not trumph those around you.
My children don't need to see excessive risk taking, because you can do what you want.
I don't need the added memories of scooping you into a bag after you have made contact with an object in my role as a firefighter.

Think of others before yourself.
You don't loss personal power by chossing to be part of a society.

Define excessive risk taking. Your children need to be protected from life? Why should I think of others before myself? Are others more important to me than I am? As a firefighter wouldn't you just hose me in a ditch and leave the scooping to the sanitation engineers?

Offline Sport Rider

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Re: Statistical reality
« Reply #57 on: April 07, 2014, 08:41:39 pm »
Personal freedoms are great when exercised in private.

The roads are public spaces. Your freedom does not trumph those around you.
My children don't need to see excessive risk taking, because you can do what you want.
I don't need the added memories of scooping you into a bag after you have made contact with an object in my role as a firefighter.

Think of others before yourself.
You don't loss personal power by chossing to be part of a society.

I understand your thoughts, but disagree with you on that one part.  my personal freedom to not wear a helmet does not infringe on your right to use the road in any way.

If you happen to see me on the side of the road dead, please do as I have done with my own children (and grandson) and use it as an opportunity to explain to your children the consequences of their own individual choices and actions.

Offline Open air

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Re: Statistical reality
« Reply #58 on: April 07, 2014, 09:19:12 pm »
Such is the balance, my right to do what I like and the rights of others not to have to be exposed to my actions. To believe that we are independent of the society as a whole is wrong.
If I am in an accident the ripple effect is wide.
In my role as Firefighter and Medical First Responder I see the results of accidents up close. This has tempered my view of others rights to self action.
Yes we need to be accountable for our actions, but not at a cost to others. I have a hard time with blanket statements of "it's my life and no one is going to tell me ...."
More thinking of others may be what we all need more of.

Offline gPink

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Re: Statistical reality
« Reply #59 on: April 07, 2014, 09:25:14 pm »
 'Personal freedoms are great when exercised in private.'

 :rotflmao: You really had me going with that opening line.  :beerchug:

Offline Mcfly

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Re: Statistical reality
« Reply #60 on: April 07, 2014, 10:17:49 pm »
Personal freedoms are great when exercised in private.

The roads are public spaces. Your freedom does not trumph those around you.
My children don't need to see excessive risk taking, because you can do what you want.
I don't need the added memories of scooping you into a bag after you have made contact with an object in my role as a firefighter.

Think of others before yourself.
You don't loss personal power by choosing to be part of a society.

The freedoms I enjoy are shared by those around me.  "I" do not have
more or less freedom(s) than any other American.  I respect the decisions others make
although I may not agree with them.  I think being part of a society requires a good deal
of tolerance, because we are all different in one way or another. 

Your experiences as a First Responder give you a much more graphic view of 'consequence'.
Most people just read about someone killed in a collision...  seeing that first hand is far more
graphic, and impossible to just 'let go' as you read the next article.  BTDT




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Offline Camper Dave

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Re: Statistical reality
« Reply #61 on: April 07, 2014, 10:19:21 pm »
Personal freedoms are great when exercised in private.

The roads are public spaces. Your freedom does not trumph those around you.
My children don't need to see excessive risk taking, because you can do what you want.
I don't need the added memories of scooping you into a bag after you have made contact with an object in my role as a firefighter.

Think of others before yourself.
You don't loss personal power by chossing to be part of a society.

Wait just a minute!!! I can’t believe you just said that… Talk about a self-centered, arrogant, egotistical statement! You don’t want your children seeing “excessive” risk taking?? Do you have your wife lock them away in the basement when Daddy takes his motorcycle out for a ride? Or do you truely believe that nothing bad will ever happen to you because you choose to wear what-ever safety gear you wear? Since you decided to bring up your children, I’m just trying to understand your actual level of concern. Or are you using the example of your own children for shock value?? What do you do when they see people who smoke!!??? Or over-weight??? Or drive faster than the speed limit!!!??!! Turn off the Winter Olympics!! And the cartoons!!! OMG.. This world is not safe for children!!!
 
So, how are you going to protect your children if you get t-boned by a car running a stop sign? You really think they’ll be good with the knowledge that Daddy wore all the right things? Maybe before you start preaching to us about who we should be thinking about, maybe it’s YOU who should be thinking of others. Evidently you are OK with the obviously risky activity of motorcycling because in your opinion you take some extra safety measures
. Dude, you are living in a glass house, and you’re throwing stones at people because they are not living up to your standard.

Is that better??
« Last Edit: April 07, 2014, 11:35:55 pm by Camper Dave, Reason: I was told by a member of the moderating team that I should consider reviewing my post.... »
<--- is there any mechanism in place to deal with a non- productive, antagonistic, former non- member such as this?

Offline gPink

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Re: Statistical reality
« Reply #62 on: April 07, 2014, 10:56:54 pm »
  :popcorn:  :) This thread is shaping up nicely.

Offline Bruiser

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Re: Statistical reality
« Reply #63 on: April 08, 2014, 12:55:16 am »
Growing up in S. DAK in the 60's, helmets were not a common thing, but my brothers and I  wore them. About 3 years ago we rode through Yellowstone, and I thought just this once, I'll go through the park w/o my helmet. I lasted less than a mile, and just had to put it back on.    :a012:
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Offline Sport Rider

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Re: Statistical reality
« Reply #64 on: April 08, 2014, 06:16:08 pm »
Such is the balance, my right to do what I like and the rights of others not to have to be exposed to my actions. To believe that we are independent of the society as a whole is wrong.
If I am in an accident the ripple effect is wide.
In my role as Firefighter and Medical First Responder I see the results of accidents up close. This has tempered my view of others rights to self action.
Yes we need to be accountable for our actions, but not at a cost to others. I have a hard time with blanket statements of "it's my life and no one is going to tell me ...."
More thinking of others may be what we all need more of.

I'm an advocate for nude beaches too.   :)

I do hear you, and with a son who is a cop, I hear lots of the stories which you could pass on to us.  I'm just a tea party type and think government has infringed way too far in areas of life they do not belong in.

don't want to be too argumentative with you.  I recognize your right to your view of the discussion.   :great:

Offline Sport Rider

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Re: Statistical reality
« Reply #65 on: April 08, 2014, 06:21:09 pm »
Personal freedoms are great when exercised in private.

The roads are public spaces. Your freedom does not trumph those around you.
My children don't need to see excessive risk taking, because you can do what you want.
I don't need the added memories of scooping you into a bag after you have made contact with an object in my role as a firefighter.

Think of others before yourself.
You don't loss personal power by chossing to be part of a society.

Wait just a minute!!! I can’t believe you just said that… Talk about a self-centered, arrogant, egotistical statement! You don’t want your children seeing “excessive” risk taking?? Do you have your wife lock them away in the basement when Daddy takes his motorcycle out for a ride? Or do you truely believe that nothing bad will ever happen to you because you choose to wear what-ever safety gear you wear? Since you decided to bring up your children, I’m just trying to understand your actual level of concern. Or are you using the example of your own children for shock value?? What do you do when they see people who smoke!!??? Or over-weight??? Or drive faster than the speed limit!!!??!! Turn off the Winter Olympics!! And the cartoons!!! OMG.. This world is not safe for children!!!
 
So, how are you going to protect your children if you get t-boned by a car running a stop sign? You really think they’ll be good with the knowledge that Daddy wore all the right things? Maybe before you start preaching to us about who we should be thinking about, maybe it’s YOU who should be thinking of others. Evidently you are OK with the obviously risky activity of motorcycling because in your opinion you take some extra safety measures
. Dude, you are living in a glass house, and you’re throwing stones at people because they are not living up to your standard.

Is that better??

Dave....you forgot to mention about the hazzards of eating at McDonalds.  I think lab rats got cancer from some of that stuff.   :))

Offline Slingblade

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Re: Statistical reality
« Reply #66 on: April 08, 2014, 07:01:51 pm »
Personally I will always wear a helmet, but I will fight for the right to commit suicide by not wearing one, or by smoking, or whatever other method I or anyone else chooses to die by.
I know people who consider me suicidal because I choose to ride a motorcycle.
I pity them.  :nananana:
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Offline BertL

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Re: Statistical reality
« Reply #67 on: April 09, 2014, 02:15:38 am »


Second, motorcycle fatalities, like auto fatalities graphed on an annual bases does not allow us to draw any conclusions of value.  These types of fatalities are generally tracked on the number of fatalities per thousand miles driven or some variant of it.  It is possible that the number of miles driven has increase and that the fatalities per 1,000 miles driven has deceased that would indicate the opposite of what is implied...given the information provided we have no way of knowing.



Bert

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The National Transportation Safety Board specifically asked the Federal Highway Administration to work with states to develop uniform data-collection procedures that will result in better information about the number of miles traveled by motorcycles, one of the most important factors in evaluating crash statistics.

This is a quote I pulled from an AMA document related the "Conclusions Misleading in New IIHS Report 2007-09-13.

So until this metric is used as a baseline we will have no credible, definitive, answer from "untortured data"...until then YES WE HAVE NO BANANAS :truce:

Bananaless Bert

Offline BDF

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Re: Statistical reality
« Reply #68 on: April 09, 2014, 05:07:52 pm »
Yeah, not so much I think.... By this time, a decent helmet thread should have far more than 5 pages.

Hey, maybe Nando can fire this thing up? Nando? Nando, where are you? What do you think about helmets, wearing helmets and helmet laws in general?  :rotflmao:

Helmet laws are interesting: funny thing but the state to the west of mine has no requirements for motorcycle riders to wear helmets. The state to the north of me requires riders of motorcycles to wear helmets. My state must have decided to split the difference because here there is no requirement for the driver of a motorcycle to wear a helmet but a passenger MUST wear a helmet. Go figure. And yep, it is enforced; LEO's will stop and ticket a motorcycle rider for having a passenger without a helmet..... and I believe it is the driver who gets the ticket, which is again a bit odd. It is a long, odd story as to how it got this way but no one seems to be in any kind of hurry to change it either way. By the way, we used to have plain, old helmet requirements for everyone on the bike but that law was repealed..... for the driver only (a mistake in the wording of the law, resulting in the odd requirement that only the passenger must wear a helmet).

Brian

  :popcorn:  :) This thread is shaping up nicely.
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Offline VTconnie

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Re: Statistical reality
« Reply #69 on: April 09, 2014, 09:41:02 pm »
Not wearing a helmet is insane, what, motorcycling isn't dangerous enough? If a stupid helmet law saves at least one new rider's life, than its worth it. I feel naked if I go 10 feet without a helmet, and for good reason. Say you are in traffic, moving slowly. and someone comes out of nowhere and T-bones you at a slow speed. You get thrown to the sidewalk and die from cracking your skull off the concrete from a dead stop.
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Offline Rev Ryder

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Re: Statistical reality
« Reply #70 on: April 09, 2014, 09:54:42 pm »
Atta way to stir it Mike!   :D

To paraphrase...
I'll see the aforementioned "idiot" and raise you an "insane." 

I have to say that it seems that perhaps a number of folks consider not wearing a helmet irrational in light of the potentialities... even to the level of mental illness or at least rational irregularity.  It ain't "synth vs. dino" but there is a sense of passion at least.  Carry on!   :motonoises:     
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Offline gPink

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Re: Statistical reality
« Reply #71 on: April 09, 2014, 10:07:44 pm »
Pick one....

8 Riskiest Things We Do Everyday
 Print  Email  Favorites    More  By Valerie Banner
Reviewed by QualityHealth's Medical Advisory Board
If you don't wrestle alligators for a living or spend your free time doing daredevil stunts, you probably think you live a relatively low-risk existence. Perhaps an average morning consists of hitting the snooze button, taking a warm shower, eating a quick breakfast, and then driving to work.

So you might be surprised to learn how many people are injured doing these same seemingly innocuous tasks. What's more, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), more people are injured at home than anywhere else. Here, a rundown of the riskiest things we do everyday.

1. Get out of bed.
Who knew the first thing you do every day is so dangerous? About 130 people a year are killed by falling out of bed. In addition, you have a 1 in 20,000 chance of getting out of bed, falling, and fracturing your skull so badly that it kills you.

2. Shower.
Falling is the leading cause of death caused by injuries and is the biggest reason that older adults end up in the emergency room. About 16,000 people a year die from fall-related injuries, according to the CDC. To help reduce the risk of falling in the shower, place rubber mats on the bottom of the tub, and install a sturdy bar to hold onto.

3. Have sex.
Chances are, you don't have sex every day, but when you do, you're probably not thinking about whether it could kill you. Statistics show that people with risk factors for heart disease are twice as likely to suffer a heart attack during sex (or an hour after sex) as those who had not had sex. However, that risk is still very low—findings published in the Journal of the American Medical Association put the risk of sex causing a heart attack at 2 in a million, while the regular risk of heart attack stands at 1 in a million.

4. Drive.
Think you're not at risk because you don't drive very far? You may be surprised at how close to home accidents occur. According to auto insurer Progressive, 52 percent of all accidents occur 5 miles or less from home, and 23 percent occur within a mile of home.

5. Cook.
Whether you're preparing a meal indoors or out, cooking can be hazardous to your health. For example, about 2,000 people worldwide are injured each year trying to pry apart frozen foods. In the U.S., another 30 people are injured as result of gas grill fires or explosions, according to the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission.

6. Eat.
Congratulations, you've survived the food preparation—but will you make it through the meal? Nearly 5,000 people a year may die due to foodborne illnesses, according to the CDC. An additional 76 million cases of food poisoning will occur, mostly as a result of eating food contaminated with bacteria or viruses.

7. Do yard work.
Among adults 65 and older, an injury is most likely to occur while working around the yard, according to the CDC. Mowing the lawn is a particularly dangerous activity. One study found that nearly 80,000 people end up in the hospital each year to be treated for lawn mower-related injuries.

8. Go to work.
For every 100,000 employees, about four of them will be killed in a work-related fatality, according to data from the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics. Workers most at risk include farmers, fishermen, forestry workers, truck drivers, and construction workers.

Updated: November 20, 2008
http://www.qualityhealth.com/health-lifestyle-articles/8-riskiest-things-we-everyday

Offline Mcfly

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Re: Statistical reality
« Reply #72 on: April 09, 2014, 10:28:58 pm »
Pretty funny how some laws get introduced with nary a thought...
If the passenger has to wear a helmet, but the rider doesn't, in a hard brake
the helmeted passenger knocks out the rider when the helmet cracks
into the rider's skull making a potentially dangerous situation a full blown mess. 
But would we really expect lawmakers to think about the laws they create? 
Doesn't seem so, eh?
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Offline gPink

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Re: Statistical reality
« Reply #73 on: April 09, 2014, 11:05:32 pm »
Pretty funny how some laws get introduced with nary a thought...
If the passenger has to wear a helmet, but the rider doesn't, in a hard brake
the helmeted passenger knocks out the rider when the helmet cracks
into the rider's skull making a potentially dangerous situation a full blown mess. 
But would we really expect lawmakers to think about the laws they create? 
Doesn't seem so, eh
?

they do in inasmuch as most laws are first about imposition of will.

Offline BDF

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Re: Statistical reality
« Reply #74 on: April 09, 2014, 11:44:55 pm »
Well if I am reading that statistic right, then having sex reduces the chances of having a heart attack by 50%. So, would having sex with two people reduce the odds another 50% (75% total reduction) (assuming that one is, say, a spouse and he / she does not find out about the other person)? Also, is the risk shared equally by the two people involved, assuming that those statistics reflect people having sex with other people and not..... nevermind.

If 'thinking of it is 80% of doing it', then does thinking about sex reduce the chances of me having a heart attack by 40%?

Now that I am thinking about it, I cannot ever remember a single case of a pornographic actor ever dying of a heart attack.... .that would seem, at least on the surface (easy boys!), to indicate that a radical increase in sex just may result in a radical decrease in heart attacks..... ?

Brian

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8 Riskiest Things We Do Everyday
 Print  Email  Favorites    More  By Valerie Banner

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3. Have sex.
Chances are, you don't have sex every day, but when you do, you're probably not thinking about whether it could kill you. Statistics show that people with risk factors for heart disease are twice as likely to suffer a heart attack during sex (or an hour after sex) as those who had not had sex. However, that risk is still very low—findings published in the Journal of the American Medical Association put the risk of sex causing a heart attack at 2 in a million, while the regular risk of heart attack stands at 1 in a million.

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Updated: November 20, 2008
http://www.qualityhealth.com/health-lifestyle-articles/8-riskiest-things-we-everyday
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